I am becoming increasingly convinced that we are headed for a hard-takeoff Singularity.
The first reason is historical. Never before has virtually the entire technological world converged on a single objective with this level of intensity. Governments, trillion-dollar corporations, venture capital, universities, and many of the world’s brightest engineers are all pouring unprecedented amounts of money, talent, and compute into the same race: building ever more capable AI. There has never been a technological mobilization quite like this.
The second reason is the hyperscale data center boom. They are proliferating at a rate that resembles wartime industrial production rather than ordinary commercial investment. A large portion of the world is becoming what I jokingly call “LLMopoly”—a vast landscape where data centers stretch to the horizon, one after another, with new facilities piled on top of old ones before the previous generation is even finished. Billions of dollars are being committed almost casually. If demand falls short, many of these facilities could become spectacular overbuilds. Yet nobody seems willing to slow down. Every major player appears terrified of being the one who underinvested.
The third reason is the competitive dynamic itself. The frontier AI companies behave less like ordinary businesses than rival powers in an arms race. Nobody wants to finish second. Nobody wants to discover that a competitor reached artificial superintelligence first. The incentives overwhelmingly reward accelerating, not pausing. Publicly, nearly everyone speaks about safety. Privately, I suspect the overriding concern is still winning.
The geopolitical environment only amplifies this. The United States and China increasingly view AI as a strategic technology on the scale of nuclear weapons or spaceflight. Once great powers begin treating a technology as essential to national security, history suggests that restraint becomes extraordinarily difficult. Nobody wants to blink first.
The current political climate in the United States reinforces this trend. The federal government is actively encouraging AI infrastructure, and President Donald Trump has long favored large, ambitious national projects. Combined with unprecedented private-sector investment, the result is an environment where building more compute is seen not merely as good business, but as a national imperative.
Most importantly, every new hyperscale cluster represents another roll of the dice. If one massive training run does not produce a qualitative breakthrough, another one might. And another after that. Compute continues to increase. Algorithms continue to improve. Investment continues to accelerate. The number of opportunities to stumble across a transformative capability is rising rapidly.
People often imagine the Singularity as a single dramatic event. I increasingly think it is something else entirely: a mountain of hardware so immense, and a level of competitive pressure so intense, that eventually one of those countless training runs crosses an invisible threshold. At that point, events may unfold far faster than most people expect.
Perhaps I am wrong. Perhaps there is no threshold at all. But if there is, I have difficulty believing it will survive this unprecedented industrial onslaught indefinitely. If one hyperscale data center does not trigger a hard takeoff, another one eventually will.
spikosauropod 