Tag Archives: history

A World of Tralfamadorian Test Pilots

20 Jul

Thomas Edison famously said, “Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration.” Up until very recently, that was true. However, now that everyone with any means has access to Grok 4 and the latest model of ChatGPT, that is changing. Everyone has a tireless partner with a PhD in everything to do all the grunt work for them. Probably, by Christmas, everyone with any means will have a super genius at everything as their loyal partner helping them through the highs and lows of any and every intellectual pursuit.

How long, in that kind of environment, will it take for someone to make and flesh out a discovery that has the potential to change the world beyond recognition? With robotics rapidly catching up, how long will it take them to bring their ideas to full fruition? This could turn out to be a wonderful thing. However, it is unmistakably the most dangerous transition humanity has ever gone through. Someone may discover the secret to eternal youth. However, someone else may find a cheap, handy way to build a Q-bomb.

The most dangerous part is that countless people are determined to be the one to “make a difference.” I know people who think they have created a revolutionary new system that is capable of solving any problem. Probably they are wrong, but what if they are right? Moreover, how long will it be before one of them really is right? There are a lot of clever people out there that, up to now, have lacked the tools that would be necessary to push their budding idea to the next level. Now they have those tools. Now they have an engine that can quickly do the math and test a proposition that, otherwise, would take months of trials and sweat.

In the book by Kurt Vonnegut, Slaughterhouse-Five, the Tralfamadorians explain to Billy Pilgrim that the universe ends when a Tralfamadorian test pilot presses a button while experimenting with a new kind of fuel. Now, the world is filled with Tralfamadorian test pilots. Here is my caution to all you pilots out there. Lay off the buttons! Do not be so determined to be the one that makes all the difference. Just relax already!

Tags: , , , ,

Capitalism

16 Jan

Capitalism is a very simple concept. Distribution is determined by what people are able to provide and whether or not someone else is willing to trade for it. It is so natural that it happens with no governing body.

The great advantage of this system is that it forces every individual to constantly determine what they can provide that someone else will be willing to trade for, how much of it they are likely to want, and when and where they are likely to want it. This turns every individual into a computational node and results in a form of swarm intelligence that is one of the most efficient systems in nature.

The one problem, of course, is that some people may opt to steal rather than trade. This is where governments come in. Governments ensure that people trade rather than steal.

However, when governments overstep and start meddling in trade, such as by confiscating and redistributing according to some scheme, that is collectivism.

Collectivism destroys incentive. Essentially, it replaces one form of stealing with another more official form of stealing. People quickly realize that it is easier to have their government steal for them than to provide something to trade, and they become unproductive.

Collectivism is also clumsy. Governments never have enough information to distribute with nearly the efficiency of the swarm intelligence of capitalism. They invariably distribute the wrong amounts to the wrong places at the wrong times.

Communism, resource-based economies, and every form of socialism are examples of collectivism.

Tags: , , , ,